The EU and its neighbours: how to develop relations in times of heightened geopolitical tensions?

What can the European Union expect in the coming years from Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States under Trump's leadership? How will the states and regimes in these regions evolve, and how will they relate to the EU? These are precisely the questions addressed by the reEngage project, supported by the Horizon Europe programme, in which the Institute of International Relations is also involved.

Our researchers have recently completed two introductory studies within the framework of the reEngage project. The first study focuses on the strategies, tools, and long-term policies employed by Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States in the European neighbourhood. Among other findings, it highlighted the various dimensions of Russian influence and their differing dynamics in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, the distinct nature of China's strategies rooted in less ideological foundations with an emphasis on economic influence, and Turkey’s network-building efforts among Muslim or Turkic communities.

The second study outlines the methodology for constructing scenarios, which will be utilised in the next phase of the project to map the future roles of Russia, China, Turkey, the United States, and the EU in the two studied regions. While this methodology is primarily designed for project use, it also serves as a fundamental introduction to scenario studies.

You can find links to the studies and additional information about the project below.