Analýzy ÚMV: Svět v proměnách 2025

Obsah / Content

Jan Hornát: Návrat Donalda Trumpa: Co znamená „silná Amerika“ pro Evropu?

Mats Braun: Populism in the European Parliament and the Consequences for Czechia

Jakub Eberle: Německo se posouvá doprava. Co to znamená pro Česko?

Martin Laryš: Téma Ukrajiny jako politický nástroj krajní pravice ve středovýchodní Evropě

Azriel Bermant: Israel’s Relations with the European Far Right: Implications for Czechia and the EU

Katarzyna Kochlöffel and Daniel Šitera: More Continuity than Change: Poland’s Foreign Policy between Sovereignism and Pro-Europeanism

Pelin Ayan Musil: Supporting Liberal-Minded Local Activism in Far-Right National Contexts

Asya Metodieva: Far-right Actors in Power and their Approach to Digital Sovereignty. The Case of Hungary

Clément Steuer: The Rise of the Far Right and the Autocratization of the Southern Neighborhood

Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň: Normalizace české krajní pravice ve škrtech rozvojové pomoci a v jejím protiimigračním směřování

Úvod / Introduction

In 2016, The New York Times published a series of articles highlighting the rise of far-right political parties across Europe and their increasing electoral success. One article noted the coincidence between the electoral gains of the far right and a series of migrant crises, growing economic inequality, disillusionment with the European Union, and a sense of lost national identity. That same year was marked by the U.S. presidential election, where a candidate with far-right tendencies, Donald Trump, secured the nomination of one of the country’s two major political parties. His electoral victory, which defied the polls and public predictions later that year, came as a shock to political analysts and media outlets in the Euro-Atlantic region.

We present Analyses: The Shifting World 2025 eight years after a series of what initially seemed like surprising political developments that unfolded across continents. Our core argument is that we have witnessed the normalization of such election outcomes and far-right agendas in mainstream politics and foreign policy. In Europe, the outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections, along with those of various national elections past and present, have made it evident that far-right agendas such as racial nativism, political sovereignism and economic nationalism are becoming accepted gradually but more widely. In the United States, Trump’s re-election in 2024 was no longer seen as a surprising election outcome. Amid the normalization of such election outcomes and far-right agendas, this period has also seen important shifts in the global order – i.e., the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the growing tensions in the Middle East, the US-China-Europe rivalry, democratic backsliding, and the roughening effects of climate change.

As various chapters in our volume emphasize, these shifts in the global order and the normalization of far-right agendas co-constitute one another. The rhetoric and policy practice of economic nationalism and political sovereignism challenge the legitimacy and power of international rules and institutions. Racial nativism mobilizes cultural resentments on international platforms, making it possible to imagine new walls and fortresses to restore order and reduce the mutual exchange. One might thus expect the domestic politics and foreign policy in the Euro-Atlantic space to increasingly exhibit skepticism toward international cooperation and resist supranational governance arrangements that are perceived as interfering with national self-determination. However, what we know so far is that the new actors, rhetoric, and practices focus more on reshaping global affairs than on bringing the world politics and economy back into national domains. Under the influence of the far-right and its growing acceptance within the post-liberal order, international relations, norms, and institutions are being powerfully reshaped and restructured rather than being abandoned.

CHALLENGES FOR CZECH FOREIGN POLICY

As a medium-sized EU and NATO member state with an export-dependent economy, Czechia with its foreign policy both influences and is shaped by the rising challenges of political sovereignism, economic nationalism, and racial nativism. As the authors of the ten chapters in this volume suggest, in this context there is a need for increased assertiveness combined with pragmatism and a consideration of accessible capacities. In its relations to actors and states both inside and outside of the EU, Czechia needs an active approach based on a well-informed diplomacy prepared for sudden changes. Regarding political sovereignism, Czech foreign policy will need to be pragmatic and actively engaged when contributing to coalition building among like-minded actors while also grappling with the conundrum of European democracy and the wars on the EU and NATO borders. Retaining its identity as a democratic state committed to international cooperation and multilateralism will be a key challenge. Furthermore, economic nationalism and the fragmentation of the international economic order will continue, powerfully hitting the Czech economy as an open economy as well as an integral part of the Germany-centred exportist machine. The de-risking from China proved very painful, and the idea of friendshoring is now getting a full blast from the United States. Enhancing its capacity in using EU-based trade, investment, and foreign aid instruments seems to be a possible answer. Lastly, nativism is very well known to Czech foreign policy as well as the domestic political scene.  The country was early in positioning itself among the migration sceptics. It would seem that other states, including Germany, are now converging with the Czech approach. Such a convergence, however, risks hitting the free movement on the borders between Czechia and Germany, showing one of the many contradictions of the incoming era. Our authors present such analyses in a detailed manner.

Jan Hornát highlights that Trump’s foreign policy prioritizes peace through strength, projecting power for stability rather than retreating into isolationism. It offers a clearer America First vision signaling a shift in transatlantic relations with greater responsibility for European allies. Hornát expects the U.S. to continue supporting European security while helping to counter China, but Europeans will need to address their own issues more rigorously. Czechia, like others, will face increased expectations within this realigned framework.

Mats Braun examines the populist surge in the European Parliament and its consequences for Czech priorities within the EU. He stresses that the party groups in the Parliament to the right of the European Peoples Party are internally divided and heterogenous in their policy preferences even within the single party groups.  Yet the stronger presence of political parties that are less critical of Russian interests can weaken the EU’s support for Ukraine. The Parliament is not a powerful actor in the Common Foreign and Security Policy but has traditionally been a strong and rather coherent voice in favour of stringent sanctions on Russia as well as in support of further EU enlargement.

Jakub Eberle discusses Germany’s shift to the right, which is reflected especially in its responses to migration. The positions of radical actors like the AfD are increasingly becoming accepted by the political mainstream. This affects Czechia, according to Eberle, as it leads to a convergence on views regarding migration and EU border protection, and a divergence on the issue of reintroducing controls on the shared internal borders.

Martin Laryš investigates Central European far right parties and discusses their changed approach to Russia. The chapter stresses that the parties challenge support for Ukraine while articulating specific domestic issues. Even if the parties often avoid expressing direct support for Russia, and, in general, are less interested in the broader international context, their efforts contribute to undermining the national and potentially even the European support for Ukraine.

Azriel Bermant focuses on the challenges Czechia faces in balancing its historical support for Israel with its commitment to democratic values, human rights, and EU cohesion. He highlights the Israeli government’s growing ties with European far-right groups, which promote nationalist agendas. These alliances, Bermant argues, conflict with the pro-democracy nature of Czech foreign policy. He calls for a navigation in Czechia’s support for Israel and an ensuring of its alignment with its democratic principles.

Katarzyna Kochlöffel and Daniel Šitera demonstrate how one year after the so-called pro-European Civic Coalition took power in Poland, the announced shift from the Law and Justice sovereignist foreign policy has proven more complex than expected. Kochlöffel and Šitera explore the tension between the promised change and the real continuity, and its impact on Poland’s position toward its European partners in areas of migration and war. Much of this requires a pragmatic approach from Czechia when it rightfully treats Poland as a close ally.

Pelin Ayan Musil draws attention to the resilience of liberal-minded local governments within far-right national contexts like those of Hungary and Türkiye. She discusses the potential of supporting the local activism of these actors in policy areas like migration and climate change through transnational city networks and calls for a more assertive role for city governments within the EU and Czechia so that they would influence EU legislation through such networks.

Asya Metodieva highlights the tension between the EU’s Digital Services Act framework and the illiberal practices of the Hungarian government, where such frameworks risk being exploited to suppress civil society. She argues that a merely formal alignment with the EU’s digital initiatives is insufficient, as their misuse undermines the EU’s vision of freedom of speech and facilitates the spread of far-right ideas. Metodieva emphasizes the need for partnerships among like-minded states, including Czechia, with the aim to uphold democratic digital practices, and ensure stricter compliance with EU regulations.

Clément Steuer discusses the rise of authoritarian regimes supported by far-right European leaders in the EU’s southern neighborhood, following the EU’s policy shift from democracy promotion to tackling terrorism and migration. He advocates for a new EU strategy that could be backed by Czechia, and that would address social, territorial, and environmental inequalities in the region while supporting civil society, which is also likely to reduce migration pressures in the long term.

Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň explores Czechia’s approach to international development cooperation, highlighting the far-right influence on budget cuts and the thematic reorientation of the Czech commitment to it. As a result, the aid priorities were reoriented toward curbing migration while the funding for humanitarian assistance was unprecedentedly reduced. Horký-Hlucháň concludes that such trends are unlikely to be reversed and might undermine Czechia’s foreign policy influence amidst changing global needs.