World Politics Scenarios
World Politics Scenarios is a new type of publication output of the IIR. The authors of the related studies, in the context of a Czech environment, use a unique method for the creation of the scenarios with the ambition to enrich the debate on foreign politics with a new speculative dimension. The scenarios in this publication are not instruments which would lead us to the most accurate probabilistic forecasts, but - like structurally different versions of the future – they capture the key dynamics of the situation. Alternatively, the scenarios show, through an elaborated causal chain, various possible yet just barely thinkable consequences of otherwise unproblematically thinkable actions.
A newly renewed institutional unity in Europe or its fragmentation along many axes. Germany supporting technocratic integration at the front of a federalizing Europe or a worsened Euro-sceptic revolution. A peripherization and disintegration of Central Europe and a strengthened regional cooperation. A Cyprus that "plays possum" during its EU presidency or in its tense relations with Turkey. A stabilized and withering EU whose condition was caused by China. The clash of great strategies in the USA, albeit with the edges of a sharpened strategic culture and limited resources. An Israeli strike on Iran, an unintended escalation in the Straits of Hormuz and an American diplomatic revolution. A retalibanization of Afghanistan or the fall of the country into a civil war. Growing tension in East Asia or a conciliatory Chinese regional policy. Three variations of Putin emerging victorious in some way.
These are only some of the more or less imaginable futures that you will find in this year’s issue of World Politics Scenarios.
World Politics Scenarios 2012-2013 Pdf download (583 kB, ENG)